Contents

Betting on Politics

  • all transparent countries that although this
  • I want the EU in here lol

1. Politicians' Stock Trades

  • Quiver Quant Congress Trading Dashboard (quiverquant.com/congresstrading)

  • Tracks trades by U.S. Senators and Representatives, updated within 45 days of transactions (as legally required) 611.

  • Features:

  • "Congress Long-Short Strategy" (backtested 34.76% CAGR since 2020) 6.

  • Filter by politician, stock, or trade value (e.g., Rep. Michael McCaul’s $3M trades in 60 days) 7.

  • Barchart Politician Insider Trading (barchart.com)

  • Lists recent buys/sells by politicians (e.g., Rep. Ro Khanna’s 225 trades in 60 days) with estimated trade values 7.


2. Government Spending & Contracts

  • Hamilton Project/Brookings Federal Expenditure Tracker (brookings.edu)

  • Monitors daily/weekly federal outlays to agencies, states, and programs (e.g., SNAP, NIH) 89.

  • Shows trends vs. prior years (e.g., 2025 vs. 2024 spending) 9.

  • White House Investment Announcements (whitehouse.gov/investments)

  • Tracks private-sector investments linked to policy (e.g., $500B AI projects by NVIDIA/Apple under Trump-era incentives) 4.

3. Automated Tracking Tools

  • Autopilot App (App Store)

  • Copies trades from politicians and institutional investors in real-time 16.

  • Note: Requires $500+ account balance and subscription 16.

  • Quiver Quantitative Premium (quiverquant.com)

  • Offers alerts for congressional trades, lobbying, and government contracts ($25/month) 11.

Key Considerations

  • Legality: Politicians must disclose trades within 45 days, but delays occur 67.

  • Bias: White House data may emphasize partisan achievements 4.

  • Risk: Following political trades doesn’t guarantee returns (see Quiver’s 24.6% max drawdown) 6.

For global sovereign funds (e.g., Norway’s $1.4T oil fund), check NBIM 14. Let me know if you’d like deeper analysis on a specific dataset!

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